Globalization's Year of Uncertainty and Turbulence (Part 2)
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I'm just settling down from a trip to Davos and I'm thinking about some of the things I wrote just one month ago--and how much has changed and stayed the same since then. My last posting for 2007 ran under the title above and began with the words "I think the biggest globalization story of 2008 will be the replacement of the bland certainty that the world is quickly becoming 'one' with a somewhat greater recognition of turbulence and uncertainty." It hasn't taken long for the new year to validate that prediction.
Last month, as we all know, the financial markets went into a tailspin, forcing an unscheduled 75 basis points reduction in interest rates by the Fed. More recently, the Fed took the rate down another 50 basis points. These moves triggered further debate about whether the U.S. is in a recession and highlighted other macroeconomic/financial signs of weakness. But, as is customary in these matters, agreement is elusive, although rapid shifts in majority opinion have certainly been on display: "decoupling" went from being fashionable to being forgotten within the course of an eventful week.
What else might be helpful in handling an uncertain future--a topic that seems much more important than it did even one month ago? Here's what I wrote a month ago: "The sub-prime crisis has fed this shift in sentiment, but other dangers are in the air as well: concerns about global imbalances and institutions, protectionism coupled with nationalism, the emergence of new power centers and miscellaneous geopolitical and even biological hazards."
As one attendee at Davos put it to me last week, questions concerning 1-2% drops in GDP crowded out consideration of risks that might have a 10-20% positive impact on global GDP. But they shouldn't--and so let's discuss some such contingencies and their implications:
• Plan for bumps and shocks in making your strategic plans--in a way that takes things down to the industry and company level.
• Envision multiple possible futures, instead of simply trying to predict the next bump or shock.
• Recognize the value of options in an uncertain world.
Getting a grip on and dealing with an uncertain future are themes to which I will keep returning in my postings this year. How have the events of the last month reshaped your--or your company's--global strategy?
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Professor ,
Thank you for the post. I have been studying the markets for sometime and completely agree to you on what you spoke about on the lines of the economy. Going forward , I would like to emphasize on a couple of details. Do , kindly , suggest if I am on the right track.
Before I start , just to give you a brief about myself: I work as a Strategic sales professional for a #1 Software Product Company, responsible of Global Business in Fortune 50 Financial Services accounts. Since I keep on interacting with my customers on the IT front , my business from these accounts are a function of how these companies manage CHANGE amidst turmoil.
The premise of this post is exactly on the same lines , you mentioned in the post. The key word is “turmoil”.
One of my colleagues , who also incidentally looks into Financial services , was telling me an interesting idea, in view of the turmoil. He said , “ In previous times when we thought its a time of recession , I figured out that it was because , people weren't looking to spend. The money doesnt roll and supply chains all over the world carry little pipe. BUT this time things are different. This time ,people have spent so much BEYOND their means such that , it has made the supply chains( so interconnected) , to block everywhere.”
When the “have not's” have done their trick , the “have alls” are holding back, which is another problem, adding to the crisis.
Another very important point which I wanted to add , from my experience with these Top Fortune elite companies are:
a. The Wall Street problem : Pressure to perform at any cost.
b. This leads to lack of vision : Most companies Strategize for only 3 to 6 months down the road.
Said the above, my gut says , the worst is yet to happen. The tumultuous avalanche is yet to arrive. If the supply chains of all demands are connected , this is bound to happen. History has proved it. Fractal mathematics have shown connectivity on history , and going by history , things will head for a wrong turn. The economies have been going up for decades, and the trough is bound to happen.
Now heres the interesting part :
If there is a crest , there is a trough, and vice versa. Universal principle. It allows us to proactively understand what went wrong and re-engineer our thoughts. For those who have missed the bus on getting rich , should have another chance of trying for it. Isn't that a good thing again.
If people step up gears to become financially literate now, and invest wisely when things are down, they would surely gain . Thats what happened in all the depressions. For example John Paul Ghetty bought real estate during the depression, and the rest was history. For ordinary mortals like me , following what history tells us , will be the guiding light . We should actually welcome the troughs now, and become proactive.
To conclude this post , let me remind Thomas Edisons words when his factory burnt down because of fire. He said “ Thank God , we can start all over again”.
Do give me you thoughts, and suggestions. And Thank you for allowing us to put our comments as well to your post.
- Posted by Subhashish Acharya
February 9, 2008 8:01 PM
Yes, you are right, everyhting seems to be heading towards an economic doldrum.
Dikhawat
- Posted by Dikhawat Museebat
February 10, 2008 6:42 AM
A lot of the positive results about globalization have been told over and over again. I am glad that Prof. Ghemawat among the very few tells a negative side of globalization.
But the worst of globalization, I think, is the destruction of natural resources and the eco-system, hence the Climate Change.
Is there any effective way we can use those best business theories such as the CAGE framework to help companies all around the world, especially small and medium,work together to tackle climate change?
The best business theories should not sit on the self or just be used by MNCs; they got to be used effectively in the front line to tackle Climate Change; countries like China or India. If we don't work together to deal with the most critical crisis human being ever faced Now, we are doom.
Anybody has any idea about How?
I think the idea could become next Microsoft or Wal-Mart.
Welcome to discuss.
- Posted by Mike
February 24, 2008 3:12 PM
Mike ,
There are a couple of topics on www.fastcompany.com regarding these ideas. Try and take a look.
Second , i remember answering Amit Chatterjees blog( an Ex McKinsey and now Sr VP , SAP) regarding these topics. Just do a google on the same.
One person who gave a us a very good idea is Terry taminem. Just google him out. he might have some blogs on the same.
- Posted by Subhashish Acharya
March 2, 2008 6:55 PM