Voices » Tom Davenport » We Need to Renovate the Old Economy, Not Rebuild It
6:56 PM Tuesday October 21, 2008
You hear a lot of talk about rebuilding the U.S. economy, and it obviously needs some help. But I wonder if we ought to make some changes as we rebuild. The old structure doesn't seem that desirable anymore. When we rebuild, how about some renovations at the same time?
For example, the old U.S. economy wasn't very environmentally sustainable. The good news about our current predicament is that the U.S. generally emits substantially less carbon into the atmosphere when it's in recession. So maybe we shouldn't come out of it until we figure out how to stop this pattern.
Our old economy was based heavily on consumption by--of course--consumers. Economists are saying that consumer spending is all that has saved our economic bacon over the past couple of decades, and now we've cut back. The good news about this is that consumers have been spending their way into severe hock, so stopping that overspending is positive. Consumers have even resisted spending their economic stimulus checks. We need to save more to pay off our credit balances, finance our retirements, and send our kids to college. The bad news, of course, if that consumers don't spend we don't reinvigorate economic growth. So how can we stoke a consumer-driven economy and save at the same time?
We can't. It's no accident that China and Japan, for example, have been both producer-driven economies and nations of savers. We have to slowly shift back to being a producer-driven economy. It will be difficult and painful, but we have to spend less and produce more goods and services that other economies around the world want to buy. We also need to replace these other economies as investors in our own economy.
This probably means that the U.S. government needs to identify some key industries that it will nurture as the potential big exporters of the future. There used to be many objections to this sort of "industrial policy," but perhaps now that much of our financial system has been nationalized, such interventions will seem relatively mild. We're already investing in the automobile industry, for example, although I'm not sure that's our best bet for future exports. Tom Friedman is probably correct in saying (in Hot, Flat, and Crowded) that environmental technologies would be one of the best possible industrial policy investments for the U.S.
Another attribute of the consumer-driven economy we've built is that we have generally taken the proceeds of our productivity in--you guessed it--increased consumption. This is unlike our European cousins, who have cashed in productivity for leisure. Americans work some of the longest hours in the world, and we don't even have enough time to watch the cool flat-screen TVs we've bought. My guess is that we'd all be happier and more relaxed if we started trading increased productivity for increased time on the beach.
There are many other aspects of our new economic house that need to be renovated, but that would take a book, not a blog post. There need to be more regulation, greater investment in human capital, increased transparency and understandability, better health care at a lower price to the society, and so forth. None of these transitions will be easy. I don't envy the members of the new Council of Economic Advisers!
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Tom Davenport holds the President’s Chair in Information Technology and Management at Babson College, where he also leads the Process Management and Working Knowledge Research Centers. His books and articles on business process reengineering, knowledge management, attention management, knowledge worker productivity, and analytical competition helped to establish each of those business ideas. His website is tomdavenport.com
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Comments
I just watched Charlie Rose a few days back - A conversation about leadership at the Harvard Business School centennial celebration, where he interviewed John Doerr, Jeffrey Immelt, James Wolfensohn, Meg Whitman, and Anand Mahindra.
http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2008/10/20/1/a-conversation-about-leadership-at-the-harvard-business-school-centennial-celebration
Your insight is shared by some of the folks above too.
- Posted by Gung Ho
October 21, 2008 9:26 PM
Dear Sir,
A very intersting post on Renovating America's economy.
If you look go back and look to the old American who build America in the second half of the 19th and 1st half of the 20th centuries.
It was Henry Ford in Auto Business, Andrew Carnegie in Steel Business, Rockefeller in Oil, and J.P.Morgan in Financial services, apart from the two technical mavericks who went to business in later years were Alex Graham Bell and Tom Edison.
These gentlemen were either entrepreneur or great technical genius.
America was build with the unique combination of knowledge, application of knowledge in technology and last but the least entrepreneurship.
The bigger question “ Is the American Business and Economic hegemony and supremacy is coming to an end?”
America has to adapt to the fast changing world, the epicenter of capitalism may shift from U.S to Asia, but still America plays a very important role.
The American MNCs with superior management and technological capabilities can manage the innovation and cost and regain the world market.
It is the unique supply chain model both in good and services, which will be outsourced globally to make this happen.
With the BRIC economies are developing very fast, the proper investment decisions have to be taken to exploit these market.
Competition will be fierce the Darwinian Law will be applicable in a more rigid way tomorrow. China in particular will play a predominant role in the world economy and a major threat and competitor to U.S.
It’s true due to the revolution in digital and networking technology the world is becoming very small and jobs from America are flying to China and India.
http://debashishbramha.blogspot.com/2008/10/chinas-role-in-global-economy.html
The labor arbitrage in the global market both in manufacturing and services are playing an important role for America’s economic policy.
Tomorrow’s business worlds will be like this:
1)Neo Classical Entrepreneurship will be in America.
2)Superior R & D will be in U.S. with the human capital both in-house and outsourced.
3)The manufacturing base will be in China.
4)The back end (BPO & KPO) will be India.
America’s core strength is in entrepreneurship, technology and application of technology in management, and general management and economic policy. It’s hard to find a Gates, Jobs, Larry, Serge or Dell in Europe or in Asia. America still has the largest no of Technological Patents with them.
You are absolutely right when you said about building human capital; a country’s progress can only be measured by looking at quality human capital that it can produce.
Post WW-II world has learned the lesson from Japan, then in the 80’s and 90’s from China.
With Warm Regards,
Debashish Bramha.
- Posted by Debashish Bramha
October 24, 2008 8:02 AM
I tracked back to your post. You're right on Tom, but I'd propose that the best direction for the American economy is value-driven over consumer or producer-driven. I'm going to expand more on the post; like you said, fleshing out these ideas require more than a blog post, but I like where you are beginning the conversation and hope to see more of your ideas. --J Martin
- Posted by JMartin DeBord
October 25, 2008 7:15 PM
Tom, remember the Houston scene from the movie Apollo 13...the one where they dump out odds and ends from a cardboard box and say that the only way to save the crew is to figure out how to make a square filter fit a round hole?
Perhaps we can renovate our economy by doing more with what we've got. Perhaps we can accelerate problem-solving and innovation by taking existing "parts" from various silos and connecting them in new ways. Often, top thinkers in one silo or sector are unaware of resources and solutions in another, so they reinvent parts of the wheel.
IT could expedite this, right? The gain in speed and efficiency and the reduction in cost could be substantial.
Mark Tomizawa
- Posted by Mark Tomizawa
October 27, 2008 7:45 PM
The US is the biggest consumer market in the world. We buy what other countries make. Becoming a producer economy is not going to happen quickly and will take years in the making. What do we do in the meantime? It would be nice to spend more time at the beach, but how will the average worker pay for it in the short term?
- Posted by Marsha Marinich
November 18, 2008 10:07 PM
Hello to Mr.Thomas H.Davenport:
You have some interesting ideas regarding consumption in the American economy.
There is one thing here, we are moving into a service economy, no doubt about it, but we still need some manufactures to survive, like the 3 big cars manufactures, this may ignite all the business around them from another industries which depend on the 3 cars manufactures. Many business will come back if the 3 cars manufactures are back on track, that will increase spending all around the American economy.
Mr. Bill Gates, Microsoft founder, said something a few days back that seems to me interesting, like always. He told to the next President Mr. Obama to spend more.
Why?, the only way to wake-up the risk-taking behavior in our consumers is if they have enough money at hand, cash or credit, to spend and not be afraid of running out of money to pay other things like food, gas for the car, new clothes, go out to dinner,etc,a new car, pay our tuition for college to our sons,etc.
This is a situation that started before Mr.Bush became the President of the U.S. but the fear to invest have being growing up since, instead of going down.
The risk-taking decisions fear can only be controlled by handling the consumer purchasing power.Lower gas prices at the pump may increase our spending power, the money going to the gas stations before can be now part of an increase in our consumers budget.
We may want to be produce-driven but if there is no money to buy what we produce there is not an economic surge. That's why Mr. Bill Gates wants more spending from the Federal Government. More spending will put much more purchasing power in consumers hands, who will feel better to buy or/and invest in the economy which will create more jobs,more salaries and more investments.
I don't pretend to have the whole truth in my hands.I don't think my decisions are the best. What I'm trying to do is to pinpoint those areas of the economy where more money can be spend and increase bying and/or investing that will create more employment and more demand from producers.The supply of money may play a critical role in a potential "renaissance" of our market-economy.
Our responsibilty will be taking into consideration in this tough times in every decision we make and those who don't care about the U.S. economy crisis will have to be prosecute.
We, Americans and relatives from Americans citizens, are resilients enough to bring this sheep in to the shore once again, some things will have to change. No panic,we will work this out together and our country will keep shining one more time.
God Bless America!
Sincerely,
Julio R.Gonzalez Jr.
- Posted by Julio R. Gonzalez Jr.
December 9, 2008 4:03 PM