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How Can $220,000 Trump $200 Million?

8:34 AM Wednesday October 8, 2008

Tags:Google, Innovation, Product development

Want a good way to get a group of executives to pause before making a decision about an innovation project? Ask them which of the following innovations they would prefer:

Innovation A: This innovation came out of the gates like a bullet, racking up first-year sales of more than $200 million. A clear value proposition, clever positioning, and a strong distribution network led to market success.

Innovation B: This innovation had first-year revenues of a mere $220,000. The innovation had proprietary technology, but the customer and the business model were very unclear.

It's obvious, right? Innovation A is the winning proposition.

Let's reveal more information. Innovation A was Vanilla Coke. It was a line extension that largely cannibalized sales of Coke's other products. Three years after launch, fizzling demand led Coke to pull the product from the market.

Innovation B was Google. In Google's early days, it had a technology and not much else. After a couple of iterations, though, it came up with its advertising-based business model, setting the stage for one of the greatest economic success stories of current times.

Far too many companies make decisions about which projects to fund based on a single set of metrics, with an overwhelming focus--particularly in today's challenging economic climate--on near-term sales. The context, or the type of innovation, matters a great deal. You should expect a line extension that rides on an established brand name with known distribution will come out the gates faster than a new to the world product that is still experimenting to find its business model.

While first-year sales are important, it's far more critical to tease out the underlying potential of an idea, and to watch how revenues grow in subsequent years. Many great growth businesses start small and take a few years they start exponential growth.

If you don't look at your Innovation As and Innovation Bs differently, you are bound to miss something. If you are like most companies, what you will miss are the Innovation Bs that are the best bets for long-term value creation but seem too small to matter in the early days.

Before making a decision about an innovation, make sure you know what type of idea you are evaluating. Then make sure you use the right metrics for that idea. Judge line extensions based on detailed market forecasts and other quantitative metrics. Judge new-to-the-world ideas based on upside potential, progress against key milestones, and other qualitative markers of success.

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Comments

Great post!

- Posted by Adam 
October 10, 2008 1:55 AM

You are precisely right. The success does not come when you have lured the targeted market group, rather when you have successfully brought in the non-targeted market. Exactly the example you gave with the nintendo wii vs the playstation 3. Great WorK!

- Posted by Robert Kempton 
October 11, 2008 9:41 PM

Very apth! Futuristic approach create greater and sustainable value than an Immediate gain from early break thoughs!

- Posted by George Enema 
October 15, 2008 8:55 AM

Scott,

Thank you for a great post. This is exactly what I see companies struggling with these days. Where many have taken steps towards meeting growing demands of the market place for new and better offerings, not many have cracked the magic formula for how to recognize a good thing when it is lterally right under your nose.

The best results I have seen so far is where the companies set money aside into a "trust-fund" for the experts to invest into what the experts believe creates value. The successful ones require work within both types of Innovation you have described; Innovation A - to meet already identified market needs, and Innovation B to discover and create new demand with ideas and projects that do not deliver immediate returns nevertheless create passion with their developers.

Best regards,
Renata

- Posted by Renata Frolova 
October 16, 2008 4:36 AM

Completely agree.

Companies will miss innovation type B opportunities big time. Most importantly, they may not become aware of it until it is too late. Is there any way that a company could do to prevent this type of missing opportunities from happening? What would be the things that a company could do to get better at this proactively? Or just pending on who is on at the time to when the decision is made, right or wrong, luck of draw?

Too often, people at the position are not being able to make the right choice due to the short-term goals that they have been slated. On the other hand, they are the people who will determine what future projects are a company will focus their capital investment/talent on. So the key solution to this problem would be to have the right people in charge of this critical business aspect who will not have any short-term revenue goals to answer. Then this person can lead a right team so that they can constantly, effectively and consistently evaluate opportunities and reevaluate opportunities to ensure that right ones being pursued at the right time to maximize a business long-term investment.

Eventually, this business practice will yield great returns short-term in addition to be long-term effective since a well built business will run its healthy cycles. As one can tell, long-term goal earlier will become short-term instruments later on to earn the much needed revenue to report to the street…

- Posted by Melinda 
October 31, 2008 8:43 PM

This is a gerat post as it shows the basic difference about two well known companies and their idea of selling their particular product.

- Posted by Risha Saraiya 
November 1, 2008 4:28 AM

When the rules of the game are known, the windows of opportunity have long been closed.

In a normal business environment a Google search machine business plan would have been killed immediately.

- Posted by Engago Team 
November 3, 2008 9:59 AM

Sounds like the Toyota-style Kaizen approach:-)

We should invent new future value seeing glasses for managers, that would help a lot;-)

Cheers,

Ralf

- Posted by Ralf Lippold 
November 12, 2008 4:23 PM

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Scott Anthony

Scott D. Anthony is the president of Innosight, an innovation consulting and investing company with offices in Massachusetts, Singapore, and India. He has consulted to Fortune 500 and start-up companies in a wide range of industries. During 2005–2006 he spearheaded a yearlong project to help the newspaper industry grapple with industry transformation (Newspaper Next).

Anthony is the lead author on The Innovator’s Guide to Growth: Putting Disruptive Innovation to Work (Harvard Business School Press, 2008). He previously coauthored (with Harvard professor Clayton Christensen) Seeing What’s Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change (Harvard Business School Press, 2004).

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